Abstract

The large-scale integration of electric vehicles (EVs) into the transportation sector represents one of the key components of the transition to environmentally sustainable energy and the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. However, such an active penetration of electric transport imposes additional demands on energy systems, particularly in countries with limited energy resources, such as the Kyrgyz Republic. The relevance of this study lies in the urgent need not only to forecast increasing loads on the energy system but also to develop effective management mechanisms considering the continuous growth in the number of electric vehicles. The aim of this research is to create mathematical models capable of adequately assessing the impact of the widespread adoption of electric vehicles on Kyrgyzstan's energy system, taking into account the specifics of seasonal energy consumption. The methodology is based on mathematical modeling, which enables the determination of load growth dynamics and the clarification of how seasonal fluctuations in electricity consumption affect network operations. To implement this approach, parameters of the current generation level, operational characteristics of EV batteries, and the specifics of the region's climatic conditions were taken into account. Analysis of the results demonstrates that the annual increase in the electric vehicle fleet in the country leads to a steady rise in the load on the energy system, reaching approximately 0.7% of the total generation volume over a decade. The most significant surge in consumption occurs during the winter months, emphasizing the need to consider seasonal factors when developing strategies for energy infrastructure development. The models developed in this study prove their effectiveness: they not only allow for the prediction of risks but also formulate specific recommendations to mitigate negative impacts. Among these recommendations are the expansion of charging station networks and the introduction of smart systems for managing the charging process. The practical significance of the findings lies in strengthening the stability of the energy system and improving its efficiency under conditions of rapid growth in the number of electric vehicles. Theoretically, the study contributes to the development of methods that provide a detailed account of seasonal fluctuations and the integration of renewable energy sources, thereby promoting the long-term sustainability of the energy system

Keywords

electric vehicles; energy system; seasonal fluctuations; sustainable development; mathematical modeling; energy grid load

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Suggested citation

Tursunbaev, Zh., Satybaldyev, A., & Taabaldiev, M. (2025). MATHEMATICAL MODELING OF THE IMPACT OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES ON THE ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE OF THE KYRGYZ REPUBLIC. News of Osh Technological University, 25(1), 7-18.