Аннотация
Целью исследования являлось выявление закономерностей взаимодействия институциональных и технологических факторов в формировании устойчивого трансграничного водного управления региона. Для получения комплексной картины использовались методы описательной и сравнительной статистики, коэффициентный анализ, а также многопараметрическое сопоставление количественных и качественных характеристик водного менеджмента трех стран – Кыргызстана, Узбекистана и Таджикистана. Дополнительно проведен анализ воздействия демаркации и делимитации межгосударственных границ на институциональную структуру и механизмы распределения водных ресурсов, что позволило уточнить влияние административных изменений на эффективность управления. Результаты показали, что в 2017-2024 годах сохранялась выраженная асимметрия в техническом состоянии и цифровизации систем водного хозяйства. Износ ирригационной сети составлял 62 % в Кыргызстане, 55 % в Узбекистане и 60 % в Таджикистане, тогда как износ насосных агрегатов достигал 75 %, 70 % и 72 % соответственно. Потери воды при транспортировке варьировали в пределах 16-20 % в Кыргызстане, 18-22 % в Узбекистане и 17-19 % в Таджикистане, что отражало различия в степени модернизации каналов. Потери управляемого стока составляли 80 млн м3 в Кыргызстане, 110 млн м3 в Узбекистане и 85 млн м3 в Таджикистане, а потери подаваемой воды достигали 25, 35 и 25 млн м3 соответственно. Совокупные технологические потери региона достигали около 650 млн м3, включая 230-250 млн м3 в Узбекистане, что соответствовало самой высокой нагрузке на оросительную систему низовьев. В целом отмечен переход к координированной модели управления, где технологическая интеграция и обмен данными формируют основу долгосрочной водной устойчивости Ферганской долины. Практическая ценность исследования состоит в применении его результатов для совершенствования водного управления и инфраструктуры региона, а также в целях минимизации рисков геополитических природно-ресурсных конфликтов
Ключевые слова
Использованные источники
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